Baseball Preview 2007

Okay, with only a few days until Opening Day, it's time to make my predictions for 2007.

Starting in the junior circuit, of course...

AL EAST

1. NEW YORK YANKEES - (predicted record: 97-65) Still the class of the division. The starting rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Igawa, Pavano,and Karstens is very solid and deep. On paper, this is arguably the best lineup we have seen in a long time.The bullpen is solid, and as long as #42 is there for the 9th inning,it's all good.
2. BOSTON REDSOX - (predicted record: 91-71) Dice-K joins the staff with Schilling,Wakefield,and Beckett. Papelbon decided to return to his closer role, probably a very good decision for the team.The bullpen is okay,if not great. The 5th spot in rotation is open,at least until Jon Lester can make it back to bigs after cancer surgery last December. The other question mark is rookie Dustin Pedroia at 2B, a .300 hitter with limited power in the minors, Boston is hoping for him to get on base for the big guys to get him home.
3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS - (predicted record: 87-75) The Jays are unfortunate in that they are stuck in AL East with Sox and Yanks. Toronto has a good lineup,just not as good as Boston/Yanks. The Blue Jays rotation is okay, Halladay is great but A.J. Burnett is injury prone and Gustavo Chacin has not yet fulfilled his potential. Whenever they have a late lead,B.J. Ryan will lock it down. The double play combo is questionable, too, with aging Royce Clayton and young Aaron Hill.
4. BALTIMORE ORIOLES - (predicted record: 75-87) The O's have some good young players, but not nearly enough to compete with the top 3 in AL East. The offense is solid, with Tejada and Ramon Hernandez among the best at their positions. The pitching is a concern, with Eric Bedard anchoring the rotation and Chris Ray at the back of the bullpen. In between those two, there are many questions.
5. TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS - (predicted record: 73-89) The future may be bright for the sad sack D-Rays. The lineup features several highly touted young players: B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, Ben Zobrist,and Dionner Navarro. Add to them budding stars Jorge Cantu and Carl Crawford along with Japanese import Akinori Iwamura, and there may be something to cheer for soon in St. Petersburg. The pitching, outside of Scott Kazmir, is poor, but at least it appears that Tampa Bay is heading in the right direction, finally.

AL CENTRAL

1. DETROIT TIGERS - (predicted record: 90-72) The defending AL champions are all back,and even added Gary Sheffield to the lineup. Questions of whether the starting pitchers can duplicate last years' success are heightened by Kenny Rogers starting the year on the DL. Count on another good year from Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and Maroth regardless of how the aging Rogers fares. The bullpen is maybe the deepest in MLB, with Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney backing up closer Todd Jones.Even though they are in a very competitive division, the Tigers should still win 90.
2. CLEVELAND INDIANS - (predicted record: 84-78) Cleveland is the trendy surprise pick this year,I just don't see it yet. I do think that the young Tribe can finish just ahead of the Twins and White Sox,but there are still questions such as the corner OF spots.David Dellucci and Casey Blake are among the front runners for LF and RF,respectively.Youth is scattered throughout the offense and pitching staff,with Andy Marte at 3B and Ryan Garko at 1B.You do have to be leery,though,of any team that has Joe Borowski as a closer.
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX - (predicted record: 83-79) The ChiSox are a year older,but have not changed very much from the 2006 model. The lineup still features stars like Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Joe Crede. The pitching staff still includes the likes of Jose Contreras, Javier Vasquez, and Mark Buehrlie. But it is that staff that has not been dominant since the 2005 postseason.In this tightly contested division,Chicago will finish in the midst of the Tribe and Twins.
4. MINNESOTA TWINS - (predicted record: 82-80) The loss of Francisco Liriano for the season really takes the Twins out of title contention. Johan Santana is amazing, but he can't pitch every day. The exciting lineup that features Joe Mauer, MVP Justin Morneau, and longtime Twin Torii Hunter will keep Minnesota in the race for most of the year. But the starting rotation is just not strong enough this year, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza would need to have huge seasons for the team to win the central.
5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS - (predicted record: 62-100) To put it simply: this is not a good team. Up and comers like Mark Teahen and Ryan Shealy are the few bright spots in KC. The pitching staff is relying on Gil Meche as the ace. Nuff said. FA acquisition Octavio Dotel will attempt to make his comeback as a closer,saving what few games the Royals win.

AL WEST

1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM - (predicted record: 88-74) More young talent is bubbling up from the Halos deep farm system. Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli should improve in their first full seasons. The Angels hope the controversy surrounding FA signee Gary Mathews Jr. will not linger throughout the year. Starting pitching is a strength, with several good arms: John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar in the mix with Bartolo Colon. Francisco Rodriguez is one of the best in MLB and his setup man, Scot Shields could close for other teams.
2. OAKLAND A's - (predicted record: 82-80) Remember a few years ago when it was Mulder, Hudson, and Zito in the rotation? Those days are gone now. Today it is Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, and Esteban Loaiza. With a balanced,if unspectacular lineup and a weak division, Oakland will be in the race until late in the year. The Angels are better than their rivals from the Bay Area, though.
3. SEATTLE MARINERS - (predicted record: 74-88) The M's and Rangers are about equally bad. The Mariners have a solid lineup,and they believe they have the anchor of the rotation in Felix Hernandez.A young double play combo of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez are the middle of a good infield that also includes Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. The pitching,outside of Hernandez and closer J.J. Putz, is average at best. Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez are the next 3 in the rotation.
4. TEXAS RANGERS - (predicted record: 73-89) Texas' starting pitching is more questionable than the M's.A rotation featuring Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, and Robinson Tejeda is not very strong. Brandon McCarthy is a young pitcher that the Rangers are high on,and the bullpen is solid,especially if Eric Gagne can even be close to the player he once was. Sammy Sosa apparently will go come to Arlington with the team from spring training. It will be interesting to see how much Sosa has left in the tank.

AL DIVISION SERIES PICKS:

NY Yankees over LA Angels in 5 games (NY FINALLY defeats their postseason nemesis)

Boston over Detroit in 5 games (Red Sox outplay the Tigers in intense series)

AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:

NY Yankees over Boston in 7 games (yet another fall classic between the arch rivals)

*******************************************************

And now,the Senior Circuit:

NL EAST

1. NEW YORK METS - (predicted record: 91-71) The team many felt should have won the NL last year is back, but still with issues in the starting rotation. Pedro Martinez is out until midseason at best, and there is no telling how durable Orlando Hernandez will be in 2007. Stellar setup man Duaner Sanchez is going to be out until July at least. That said, the Mets still have a strong team and I would expect them to be active in the trade market to get some more live arms for the stretch run. The only question about the offense concerns Shawn Green in RF, it seems like only a matter of time until hotshot Lastings Milledge becomes a full time starter.With rejuvenated Jose Valentin at 2B, New York has a very strong lineup and will score a lot of runs this year.
2. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - (predicted record: 83-79) The Phils are close, but not quite up to playoff level just yet.They have questions at 3B,with Wes Helms penciled in as the starter. Philly is counting on a solid full season from Shane Victorino in RF, based on what we saw in 2006, that is a reasonable expectation. The pitching, like the rest of the team, is solid but unspectacular. That should be enough to take second in the east.
3. ATLANTA BRAVES - (predicted record: 82-80) Now, I say this with a disclaimer because Atlanta could very well make a run and take the division, especially if the Mets contin ue to be hit by injuries. Brian McCann,the Joneses, Adam LaRoche, and slugger Jeff Francoeur head a lineup that will definitely strike fear into some opposing pitchers. Don't look now, but the Braves are ready to cultivate another crop of young pitchers. Chuck James will be in the rotation from the start, and kids like Kyle Davies and Anthony Lerew may be in A-town shortly. If you're a Mets fan, you want to win the east this year, because the Braves may be back on top by 2008.
4. FLORIDA MARLINS - (predicted record: 81-81) A very solid,young team. This is exactly the type of team that may surprise us all and make a run (like they did in 2003). Outstanding young players all over the roster in SoFla: Miguel Cabrera, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, etc. With the spring training trade for Jorge Julio, the Marlins filled their most glaring need, a closer. The only reason I do not pick this team higher is becuase of the "sophomore slump" that will inevitably hit a couple of their fine young players.
5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS - (predicted record: 68-94) The Nats are preparing to have a competitive team by the time they open their new ballpark which is slated to open in April 2008. Washington made several deals, dumping older players for prospects, it is a smart move for the long run, but it will result in a poor team on the field in 2007. The corner infielders are good, even though Nick Johnson will begin season on the DL. The pitching, well... it is questionable at best, but they do have a good closer in Chad Cordero. All in all, DC fans can watch the team this year secure in the knowledge that come 2008, they will be watching an exciting young team in a beautiful new ballpark.

NL CENTRAL

1. CHICAGO CUBS - (predicted record: 88-74) I rarely believe the hype about teams over the winter, especially when the team hyped is a cursed franchise like the Cubs. But, there is a very talented team on the north side this year. A lineup that will feature super sluggers Derek Lee AND Alfonso Soriano is very strong, indeed. The pitching staff, for the first time in years, will NOT be counting on Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, the latter will open the season in AAA Iowa. The starters are not great and the closer (Ryan Dempster) is not stellar, but they are all solid enough to win this division.
2. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - (predicted record: 86-76) The defending World Series champions will have a hard time in 2007. Like most champions, there was a bit of "magic" last year when the redbirds won it all. The biggest change is the starting rotation, where Kip Wells, Adam Wainwright, Al Reyes will join Chris Carpenter and an as-yet-undetermined 5th starter. However, any team that features Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen at the corners and in the middle of the lineup will be in the mix.
3. MILWAUKEE BREWERS - (predicted record: 81-81) Yes, you read it right, I pick the Brewers to be competitive all year and finish 3rd. The Brew Crew is stacked with offense from young infielders Weeks, and J.J. Hardy to surprise of 2007 Bill Hall. Prince Fielder will only get better at 1B ,and Johnny Estrada is a very solid backstop. The pitching features unheralded lefty Chris Capuano as well as Ben Sheets, Dave Bush, and 2006 WS hero Jeff Suppan. Don't look now, but Milwaukee has a good team.
4. HOUSTON ASTROS- (predicted record: 79-83) I wonder, can I make a prediction for Houston with or without Clemens? This prediction assumes they DO have Clemens in 2007. The offense, even with Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, is not strong up and down the order. The pitching has Oswalt and the Rocket, but after that they are counting on ex-Rockie Jason Jennings and young Wandy Rodriguez to pick up the slack. The bullpen is solid, but the 'stros may not have many leads to hand over to that pen.
5. CINCINNATI REDS - (predicted record: 78-84) Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang head the rotation, and the lineup features Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and up and coming star Brandon Phillips. The remainder of the team,especially the bullpen, is questionable. It's a shame, a great ballpark, and loyal fans, but the Reds will not be in the mix for a playoff berth this year.
6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES - (predicted record: 71-91) The Pirates will be good in a year or two, but the young talent isn't strong enough to compete, or even get out of the cellar in 2007. Defending batting champion Freddy Sanchez is joined in the lineup by speedy Chris Duffy, slugging Canadian Jason Bay, and underrated catcher Ronny Paulino. The rotation is thin after Zach Duke and Ian Snell, and the bullpen is so weak, they are counting on journeyman Salomon Torres to be the closer.

NL WEST

1. SAN DIEGO PADRES - (predicted record: 89-73) The Pads should make another playoff run in 2007. Despite a hole at 3B (rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff will get the start), the lineup is strong with Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, the Giles brothers, and Mike Cameron. Pitching is the strength of this team, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and Clay Hensley starting and Trevor Hoffman at the back of the pen.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS - (predicted record: 87-75) The Dodgers will struggle to return to the playoffs this year. The rotation is solid once again, as is the bullpen, with Jonathan Broxton ready to take over for Takashi Saito when needed. The lineup is missing some pop, and the bench is thin. Jeff Kent and Nomar are arguably the only power hitters in the order, and youth is being counted on all over the diamond. Andre Ethier, Wilson Betemit, and youngster Russell Martin will try to duplicate their strong 2006's.
3. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - (predicted record : 83-79) The snakes are improved and will contend in a fairly balanced NL West. Youngsters Conor Jackson, Chris Young, and Carlos Quentin are going to be starting in 2007. The DBacks look for Eric Byrnes to duplicate his breakout 2006 season. J.D. Drew's younger brother, Stephen, gets the start at SS. If all the kids break out,Arizona could go far this year, but with expected growing pains, they may be one year away. The starting pitching is among the best in the NL, with Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, and Doug Davis, The bullpen features Jose Valverde as the closer and many young pitchers setting up for him.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES- (predicted record: 81-81) The Rockies are up and coming, but will fall short this year. The addition of speedy Willy Taveras at the top of the order will prove beneficial for run producers Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, and Garrett Atkins. The question, as it always is in Denver, is with the pitching. Brian Fuentes is a solid closer in a decent bullpen. The rotation is in question, with Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook as the 1-2 starters, but the back end is filled by B.K. Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, and Josh Fogg among others.
5. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - (predicted record: 77-85) There are two things for SF baseball fans to cheer for in 2007. One is, obviously Bonds "breaking" the HR record, which he surely will accomplish at home. The other is the All Star Game, which will be in the Bay Area for the first time since 1987, when it was in Oakland. The Giants, however, will not give hometown fans much to cheer about this season. As has been the MO in recent years, the team is too old, and the pitching is not good enough.They did add Barry Zito to the staff, he will pair with Matt Cain, the oft-injured Matt Morris, underachieving Noah Lowry, and aging Russ Ortiz. Armando Benitez anchors the bullpen, but ther just won't be enough leads for him to protect this year.

NL DIVISION SERIES PICKS:

NY Mets over St. Louis in 4 games (NY gets some measure of revenge for last year)

San Diego over Chicago in 5 games (SD just has much better pitching than Cubs)

NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:

NY Mets over San Diego in 6 games (The Mets seem destined for another Subway Series)

2007 WORLD SERIES PREDICTION:

Subway Series Again!!

NY Yankees defeat the NY Mets 4 games to 3 in an exciting World Series.